Modeling past, current and future endemic plant species distribution in South-Eastern Carpathians for biogeographic analysis and conservation planning
Description
Historical and ecological factors equally influence the distribution of species in all living environments. The last major events in the Earth's history, the Pleistocene glaciations, have shaped the current range of species, driving evolutionary processes such as speciation and extinction. Endemic species, biological entities characterised by a distribution restricted to one or a few geographic units, are the most striking imprint of these biogeographical and evolutionary events. By analysing the distribution of endemic species, using state-of-the-art statistical tools, we can gain valuable insights into these modelling processes. Our proposed study aims to elucidate three important aspects affecting endemism patterns in an important mountain range of the European Alpine System: the South-Eastern Carpathians. The first approach concerns the investigation of range dynamics of endemic taxa in the postglacial period, by means of potential distribution model assemblages using the BIOMOD statistical package and palaeoclimatic data. The second approach aims to optimise the spatial structure of the protected area network in the South-Eastern Carpathians using potential distribution models of endemic taxa. The main criteria used in prioritising conservation strategies will be the connectivity of areas and the influence of climate change on species distribution. Finally, the third approach concerns the use of quantitative biogeographic methods applied to distribution data of endemic taxa to investigate the biogeography of the South-Eastern Carpathians.